However, despite the lag, this report offers an interesting perspective on fascinating aspects of the US economy. Year-over-year the index is up 6.6% (nonseasonally adjusted).Gasoline prices and increases in fuel efficiency are important factors, but there are also some significant demographic and cultural dynamics in this data series. The latest Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) for November increased to 130.9 from 130.4 in October. Seasonally adjusted, the index is up 5.08% year-over-year. This is the headline for today's release of the Chicago Fed's National Activity Index, and here is the opening paragraph from the report: "Led by slower growth in production-related indicators, the Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) declined to 0.15 in November from 0.76 in October." More…
However, when adjusted for inflation using the BEA's PCE Price Index, Real Personal Income (excluding Transfer Receipts) Mo M fell to 0.20%. Revisions were made to figures for July through October. The latest index came in at 14, down from last month's 16, which indicates that activity slowed, but still expanded in December.
The future outlook decreased to 22 from 27 last month.
The Coincident Economic Index (CEI) came in at 116.5, up from the previous month. The Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) has released its U. The latest Manufacturing Index came in at 26.2, up from last month's 22.7 and has been positive for seventeen consecutive months.
The 3-month moving average came in at 25.6, up from 24.8 last month.
Today's 26.2 headline number came in above the 21.5 forecast at Over the long haul the two series offer a compelling study of trends in residential real estate.
Here is an overlay of the two series since the 1959 inception of the Starts data and the Permits data, which began being tracked a year later.
The latest Headline PCE price index was up 0.23% month-over-month (Mo M) and is up 1.76% year-over-year (Yo Y).
The latest Core PCE index (less Food and Energy) came in at 0.08% Mo M and 1.48% Yo Y. Revisions were made to figures for July through October. Personal Income (excluding Transfer Receipts) in November rose 0.43% and is up 4.0% year-over-year.
The Fed is on record as using Core PCE data as its primary inflation gauge. The year-over-year metrics are 3.04% nominal and 1.25% real.
The trend since 2013 has been one of steady growth. The accompanying chart is a way to visualize real GDP change since 2007.
The Earlier today we learned that the Third Estimate for Q3 GDP came in at 3.2%, up from 3.1% in Q2.